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It’s hard to make it through a day without hearing about how many jobs AI is going to take from people. What’s the latest forecast for the number of jobs replaced? 2.5 million? 300 million? 80% of all jobs?
Those are some big — really big — numbers.
So, what’s the real number? Well, only time will tell who was right on this one, but I am of the opinion that the transformational nature of AI has a much more important role to play than just replacing human jobs with machines.
It’s time to rethink the narrative about where AI fits in the digital workplace.
The Perception and Reality of AI Replacing Jobs
The fear of AI taking over jobs entirely isn’t isolated to menial tasks or entry-level jobs. According to a poll conducted by edX, nearly half of CEOs believe that AI could effectively replace most or all of their roles.
The difference in this case, however, is that 47% of them also see it as a positive development.
Perhaps that’s not all surprising. A CEO who currently works 60 hours — often voluntarily — would probably gladly sign up to have their workload reduced. But do I see them being replaced completely? I’m still not 100% sure about that.
In fact, Indeed's AI at Work Report confirms my belief. In the research, Indeed analyzed over 55 million job postings to assess the exposure level of jobs to what Indeed calls generative AI. The research found that while all jobs on Indeed have skills that can be done or augmented by AI, only 20% of them are “highly” exposed to GenAI, indicating that AI is unlikely to fully replace most occupations.
The Indeed report categorized jobs into three exposure levels: highly exposed, moderately exposed and low or minimally exposed. Software development jobs were found to have the highest potential exposure, with GenAI being proficient in 95% of the skills mentioned in job postings. At the other end of the spectrum, driving jobs, such as truck and taxi drivers, had the lowest potential exposure, with GenAI proficient in only 29% of the skills.
The report also highlights the correlation between job remoteness and potential exposure to GenAI-driven change. Jobs that can be done remotely are more likely to be impacted by AI, while those that require in-person presence, such as driving, cleaning and beauty jobs, have lower potential exposure.
Even for the jobs with the highest exposure, it’s important to note that while AI is relatively good at technical skills, it still lags behind in skills that require intuition, reasoning and in-person manual work. Software developers, CEOs and truck drivers have to use intuition and reasoning regularly so that even if AI possessed the technical skills needed to do the work, the job would still require that someone apply those skills correctly.
Related Article: Artificial Intelligence Is Evolving Like Us, Just Faster
Skills Replaced, Jobs Transformed
In my view, the key takeaway from the research is that AI is not replacing entire jobs but rather transforming them by replacing specific skills.
Even Svenja Gudell, Indeed's chief economist, said GenAI’s potential as a job replacement is limited and that the technology is more likely to motivate employers to re-imagine jobs rather than remove them, often by creating new roles as AI's influence continues to grow.
“Our research shows that GenAI is less likely to replace an entire job, but rather serve as a tool to augment or streamline parts of a job,” Gudell said.
This may sound like a mere nuance, but it’s more than that. All jobs require a combination of skills — and that was true even before the emergence of AI. The difference is that in today’s workplace, that combination of skills most often requires proficiency with technology. Is using AI as part of a role so different from using a pre-AI diagnostic tool as part of a job?
Using skills as the lens for how we view AI’s impact on the workplace helps us make less sensational and more reliable and meaningful predictions about the future of work.
For example, if I know ChatGPT can help augment some or many of my writing tasks, I can choose to master complementary skills that will help me make the best use of the tool. Or, if I know automation will help sort and master my inboxes or project management and productivity tools, I know I’ll have the ability to transform my working experience for the better.
Related Article: The Impact of AI on the Future of Work: Embracing the Power of Collaboration
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AI Shouldn’t Be Feared
Shifting the AI discussion from jobs to skills takes away some of the fear-mongering aspects of AI adoption. Many of the skills that AI is already mastering are aspects of jobs that people don’t actually like. That’s a good thing.
The key to AI becoming a coveted tool in the workplace seems to be for individuals and organizations to embrace the changing landscape and develop the skills needed to thrive in an AI-aided world instead of one where we are always looking behind our back hoping it doesn’t take our job.
By leveraging AI as a tool for augmentation and streamlining, we can work alongside AI to unlock new possibilities and create a future where humans and AI coexist harmoniously.
