Feature
Research Report
The ROI of Employee Experience
Job postings would have you believe every company is racing to staff up for the AI revolution.
The reality is much, much messier.
Mentions of artificial intelligence skills in U.S. job postings hit 4.2% in December 2025, up 134% since February 2020, according to Indeed's AI Tracker. Yet over the same period, total job postings rose just 6% above pre-pandemic levels. In 2025, employers added 1.4 million fewer jobs than the year before.
So AI hiring is surging while the broader labor market stalls. This raises some questions: Are employers building for genuine adoption, or are they loading job descriptions with AI buzzwords to signal growth in a tight market? And is this really innovation in action, or is it a gamble on future results that organizations believe they can win?
The AI Talent Noise Is Coming From a Handful of Firms
The first point of confusion comes from the perception that everyone is leveling up on AI talent. But the surge in AI job postings isn't broad.
According to Brookings research, only about 6% of U.S. firms have posted a job mentioning AI. But here's the kicker: Roughly 90% of AI-related postings come from just 1% of companies. In other words, a handful of large, influential employers are making very loud bets on AI skills.
Geography reinforces the point: the AI hiring boom is narrower than it looks. The Bay Area alone accounts for 13% of national AI job postings. The top 30 metro areas capture two-thirds of such postings. Emerging hubs like Pittsburgh, Detroit and Huntsville are growing, but they're still minor players. If you're not in one of these clusters, the AI hiring boom is mostly theoretical.
AI roles also command a wage premium of roughly $18,000 per year, or 28% more than comparable positions without AI skills. That creates an incentive for employees and employers alike to emphasize AI competency even when the day-to-day work doesn't require it. The premium is real, but it's not necessarily tied to the day to day work.
AI Use Isn't Widespread, and Skills Aren't Being Replaced
While there’s a wage premium for AI skills, employees and employers are largely still playing catch-up.
A Gallup survey from late 2025 found that 45% of U.S. workers used AI "a few times a year," which in practice means almost never. Only 23% used it a few times a week or more, and just 10% used it daily. Usage was highest among technology and information systems workers, where over 75% reported some use, and much lower in manufacturing, healthcare and retail, where it hovered around 33% to 38%.
Firm-level adoption is similarly modest. The Federal Reserve's review of adoption surveys reported uptake ranging from 5% to 40%, depending on methodology. Even employment-weighted estimates, which account for larger firms, cluster between 20% and 40%. That means most businesses aren't there yet, in spite of the noise from the largest employers.
Skills replacement is similarly limited. Indeed assessed nearly 2,900 work skills in late 2025 and found just 19 — less than 1% — rated 'very likely' to be fully replaced by generative AI. Forty percent were rated as facing only minimal transformation.
Meanwhile, human skills still dominate job postings. Communication, problem-solving and basic digital literacy appear in far more ads than AI-specific capabilities. One in 10 skills mentioned in job postings is a basic digital skill, and nearly one in five postings emphasize basic computer literacy.
Companies Are Cutting Staff to Fund a Bet That Hasn't Paid Off
The mess doesn’t end with a capabilities gap. AI-driven staffing also appears to be driven by hopes and dreams.
Only about 1% of layoffs in early 2025 were tied to actual AI-driven productivity improvements, according to a Gartner study. The rest were made in anticipation of future efficiencies. Companies are cutting staff based on what they hope AI will do, not what it's doing.
Microsoft, Meta and Amazon all reduced headcount in 2024 and 2025 while investing heavily in AI infrastructure. It was crass and loud, and shareholders rewarded them for it. The logic: restructure now for what AI will enable later. Two-thirds of top executives surveyed plan to keep staffing flat or reduce headcount as they "wait and see what AI can do," according to the Wall Street Journal.
This creates a paradox. Employers are shedding workers to fund the AI experiment, then posting AI jobs to figure out whether the bet was worth it. The surge in AI postings is more likely evidence of strategic reallocation, with employers channeling constrained hiring budgets toward roles they perceive as future-critical, even if the payoff is uncertain.
The disconnect between cuts and hires reveals something uncomfortable: Many companies are acting on hopes rather than outcomes. They're laying people off to make room in the budget for AI specialists, but the productivity gains that would justify those cuts haven't materialized yet.
Workers See AI-Driven Cuts and Stay Put
Workers are noticing the pattern, and they're responding by job hugging.
Roughly seven-in-10 U.S. workers planned to remain with their current employer in late 2025. Voluntary turnover is near historic lows. People see layoffs justified by AI hype and decide not to move. The labor market stalls everywhere except in that narrow slice of allegedly high-value AI roles.
The market has split into AI haves and AI have-nots, and mobility between the two is limited. If you're not already at one of the few firms posting AI jobs, you're watching from the sidelines. Employers are cautious about hiring. Workers are risk-averse about jumping. The result is a stalled market.
If you're outside a major tech hub, the divide is even worse. Remote work might open doors, but the data suggests companies are still hiring where they always have.
Webinar
Mar
26
Do Learning Programs Really Work? How to Turn Education Into Engagement In Healthcare
See how leaders are using learning programs to build trust with healthcare professionals and create measurable engagement.
Register
Webinar
On demand
Fuel Your Front Line: Workforce Trends Shaping 2026
Get expert insight into the tools and tactics top frontline teams will need in 2026.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
Fix the Disconnect Between Projects and Profit
Your margins are hiding in disconnected data. Let's find them.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
AI in Customer Service: Faster Resolutions, Happier Customers
Don’t let rising demand burn out your team. See how to build a smarter, more resilient support org.
Watch Now
This dynamic feeds on itself. Preemptive layoffs make workers nervous. Job hugging shrinks the candidate pool. Employers respond by concentrating their limited hiring on strategic, AI-labeled roles.
What Employers and Workers Should Do Instead
For employers, the message is pretty simple: Don't cut before you know what you're building.
Layoffs based on anticipated AI efficiencies are a gamble, and candidates have long memories. If the tech doesn't deliver, you've weakened your team for nothing. Be honest about what AI roles actually require. If the work is exploratory or the tools are still being integrated, say so. Don't dress up conventional roles with AI buzzwords to ride a trend.
Invest in adoption and training alongside hiring. Bringing in AI specialists without building internal literacy means the tools won't get used well. Pair technical talent with process changes and governance frameworks. Otherwise, the AI hires become isolated, and the productivity gains stay theoretical.
For workers, the premium for AI skills is real, but the path in is narrow.
If you're not at a firm already investing in AI, consider whether lateral moves into adjacent areas like data analysis, process automation or systems integration can build the bridge. Upskilling matters, but so does positioning yourself where the work is actually happening.
Don’t let FOMO rule your decision-making ability, either. Some jobs are on a longer path to AI adoption than others. It can feel nerve-racking to read headlines about AI coming for jobs but take a more objective and personalized look at the real risk of AI operationally replacing your skills.
While this is evergreen advice, it’s always worthwhile to cultivate versatile skills. Communication, analytical thinking and domain expertise remain in high demand across sectors. AI is impacting those skills as an addition, not a replacement. Knowing when and how to use it matters more than fluency in the latest model.
The Real AI Jobs Story Is Ultimately One of Risk
The surge in AI job postings reveals where a small group of large firms are placing their bets, not where the work has already changed.
But most companies aren't posting AI jobs, and most workers rarely use AI. While skills aren't being immediately replaced, some employers are cutting staff in anticipation of efficiencies that haven't arrived.
That’s not an excuse to stand still.
If you're hiring, be honest with yourself about what you're building and who's paying for the experiment. If you're looking for work, focus on the fundamentals that remain in demand and position yourself where the actual adoption is happening, not where the buzzwords are loudest.
The AI hiring boom is real, but it's narrow, concentrated and built on expectations rather than outcomes. Navigate accordingly.